Jamaica, IMF, China and the Environment

Will Jamaica ever progress as a country, can Jamaica ever achieve any sort of economic or social progress under our current political system. I am beginning to believe we are stuck in quicksand, caught in a quagmire and being pulled with equal force from opposite ends. Our Political class and their operatives are clearly in this for selfish reasons only, the Jamaican people for the most part represents only a means to an end, we are the football on the field of life being kicked every which way till Sunday.

The purpose of all political oppositions, regardless of which party forms that opposition, is to oppose anything and everything proposed by the sitting Government regardless of which party forms that Government because the concept of bipartisan agreements, in the national interest simply does not exist in Jamaica, the Jamaican people practice and mastered the fine art of being like crab in a barrel. The PNP and their operatives when in opposition opposed every single thing the JLP Government did and the JLP and their operatives now in opposition is opposing every single thing the PNP Government is doing.

Everybody in Jamaica wants foreign Investments, they will go on and on at length about how the Government needs to attract foreign investment and foreign capital to our shores. But they only want foreign investment when their party is in power. If their party is not in power then foreign Investment is not called foreign investment but foreign sellout as they declare “look how the government a gi weh Jamaica”… The fact is, a country like Jamaica will never get foreign investment solely on our terms, we are not that cute, the Government must negotiate with potential investors and we must decide if the terms are beneficial to Jamaica and we must be prepared to walk away, if they are not.

With regards to the IMF, I have never read anywhere that said an IMF delegation came to Jamaica and beg our Government, pleaded with them on bended knees, to pretty please sign a loan agreement and they will give us money. I remember when it was announced in the 1990's that Jamaica was finally IMF free, that we had terminated our agreement with the fund, removed the shackles and regulated them to that dark place in our history.

After which we carried on without the IMF for several years until after the general election of 2007 when the new JLP Government declared that they were going back to the IMF to seek a loan. I remember my shock and horror when I first heard the news. I walked around and debated with everyone why this was a bad idea, stated that I had lived through one IMF agreement after another and how it was like hell on earth but the young pups was not having it. They proclaimed that an IMF loan was cheap, easy money and that is what Jamaica needed to recapitalize. I tried to tell them that IMF loans are never cheap, the terms are always harsh and the hurdles high but they dismissed me.

The Bruce Golding Government then signed their IMF agreement and the IMF deposited 400 million United States dollars to Jamaica's account, even before the first IMF test. It was like a carnival on that day as JLP supporters sing praises and rejoiced from the mountain tops, “Saved at last, thank god almighty we are saved at last”, even young PNP supporters were happy as pigs in shit because they also had never experienced IMF Austerity before. Another 400+ million United States dollars was also deposited from various other international financial institutions based on agreements between these institutions and the IMF, Jamaica was rolling in money, like a crack whore with free access to drugs in a Colombian drug lab.

The exchange rate which was rising at the time before the huge IMF financial payout immediately began to fall as the supply of borrowed United States dollars flood the market. Imports became cheaper and cheaper as Jamaicans looked to the heavens and shouted “Thank You Fada!” as they splurged like there was no tomorrow. They imported everything and anything, from Human Feces Fertilizer, to Range Rover, Blackberry, to Beef patty, Banana Chips, Hennessey, onion and red peas not to mention water from Trinidad. Given the choice between eating local food and eating imported food, Jamaicans will almost always choose imported food and it got so bad that no one was buying food from Jamaica’s farmers anymore. There was a glut of cheap local food on the market as the people imported Kale and Jolly Green Giant spinach over home grown callaloo. It was then that the Minister of Agriculture decided to start the “Eat what you grow program” to help out the farmers…

However when the time came for the then government to implement the IMF agreement they choked, I can only assume that the Government either did not read the agreement or had no intention of implementing anything, like a purse snatcher in a crowded market, it seems they intended to grab the money and make a run for it. I will never understand reading an agreement, signing an agreement and then breaking the agreement you singed but that is what the Government did. I would think that if the agreement was not to your liking then you would not have signed it BUT the pull of cheap US $800 Million was too great and election was upon them and with US $800 million the Government thought they could create a matrix like illusion of progress in order to win the next general election. Anyway Jamaica failed their first IMF test and the entire agreement broke down, the general election was called and the JLP lost, so out went one set of morons and in comes the next set of idiots.

The Peoples National Party promised the people a different path but ended up right back on the same path as the previous Government, back into bed with the IMF, on bended kneels asking for forgiveness and a new deal with a promise to implement the agreement to the letter this time around. By now the IMF had learned a valuable lesson based on their experience with the last Government... that you never, ever, ever give Jamaica a big lump sum of money based on promises..., no big money let off. This time it was going to be different, the IMF would deliver the money in small drips but only after Jamaica jump over a series of hurdles and water obstacles, no more hundreds of millions but a 20 million here and a 30 million there... lunch money.

First IMF Test Results under the Second IMF Agreement

Today August 22nd, 2013 it was announced that Jamaica had passed the first IMF test, we cleared the first couple of hurdle with only 295 to go. The IMF declared that they will now deposit another 30 million United States Dollars into Jamaica’s account, which should go down like honey and pass through Jamaica like laxative. As a result of the IMF Austerity measures Jamaica's exchange rate is now 102 to 1, this however is by design since the IMF wants the exchange rate to reach a more realistic position and not propped up by borrowed money, however based on what I am hearing, I believe this did not go as far enough for them but it will do for now because various IMF news reports stated that in real terms Jamaica’s exchange rate should be around 120 to 1, due to the lack of economic activity. I suspect that it will be around 105 to 1 by November unless we experience some growth and earn some hard cash soon.

In other news imports are down, this also is by design and part of the IMF’s import substitution strategy, since Imports are now more expensive as a result of the high exchange rate. The hope here is that people will begin to consume local output, support local production and grow the economy. Austerity measures almost always come with a price and as a result of cuts in Government expenditure Jamaica's economic activity is estimated to have contracted by 0.7 per cent, …“it was the fifth consecutive quarter of negative growth, indicating that the Jamaican economy continues to be in recession, with little expectation of growth beyond 0.5 per cent for the remainder of fiscal year 2013-14.”... The Unemployment rate increased to 16.3 per cent at the end of April and inflation increased to 9.7 per cent in July. However the net international reserves increased to just over US$1 billion by the end of June.

Jamaica Outperforms Projections - IMF
At the same time, the mission, which conducted the first quarterly review under the four-year extended fund facility (EFF) during the past week, reported yesterday that Jamaica's fiscal performance for the last financial year and the first quarter of the current year outperformed projections despite declines in several key areas.

Jamaica At The Bottom Of The Economic Pile: Aubyn Hill, financial gleaner COLUMNIST
Jamaica's imports still far outstrips our exports, As a country, we appear to be unwilling to curb our desire for foreign cars, clothes, hairpieces, flour and rice, and we continue to produce less and less for export.

Calls for a Jamaican Spring

I am seeing more and more partisan diehard supporters posting that what Jamaica need is some of what is happening in the Middle East, as if what is happening in the Middle East is a good thing. The Arab Spring is really a Arab Nightmare with hundreds of thousands of men, women and children killed, forced to be refugees and the region in a state of permanent perpetual civil war, yet people are talking about this is what Jamaica needs. Some of these young people are idiots with no concept of their own history because I have lived through many years of Jamaican protest and let me tell you, it is not pretty.

Yes back in the days we use to have peaceful political protest, I remember being involved in a couple of them myself, you write up some plaque cards and march to JBC where you deliver your message peacefully but at some point in our history the meaning of a protest was changed to mean a full scale riot and criminality. A politically motivated protest these days means unleash the Kraken, release the dogs of war, as smoke bellows up from the city, shots fly everywhere, stores looted, people murdered, beaten, roads blocked and people charged a toll for passage at gun point. Communities are held hostages, light post chopped down and everyone plunged into darkness with every intersection blocked with old cars and burning tires.

So you young whipper snappers be very careful what you wish for because you just might get it, especially when Jamaicans love to emulate the world’s most dangerous unstable hotspots. You might just start something you cannot reverse because the last time I checked both parties have almost equal numbers of diehard cut throat murderers and what happen if no one is willing to back down and ready to go toe to toe for a prolong period of time. Not to mention you cannot get blood out of a stone, no amount of protest can create money that only comes from hard work.

Mission to China

The Prime Minister and her delegation are in China on a one week official states visit to negotiate some deals and sign some agreements. It was announced today that several bilateral agreements was signed by both Governments.

1. China would like to use Jamaica as a Logistic Hub to take advantage of the expanded Panama Canal when it opens in 2015 and a gateway to the region.
2. China would like to build a multi-billion-dollar Logistic Hub and a new Port in the Portland Bight Protected Area on the Goat Islands. The Government has insisted that the project will provide thousands of much-needed jobs. The preliminary estimates for this mega investment are between US$1.2 billion and US$1.5 billion.
3. An Agreement was signed and China will invest into several infrastructure projects paving the way for the flow of funds under the US$350 million Major Infrastructure Development Programme.
4. The Government also inked an a agreement on economic and technical cooperation, which will see China providing Jamaica with a 100 million yuan (US$14.2 million) grant, in aid to Jamaica.
5. China agreed to build two infant schools, one in Tower Hill, St Andrew, and the other at Morant Estate, St Thomas.
6. China agreed to dispatch a technical group to Jamaica for feasibility study on a teaching building project at the Confucius Institute on Mona Campus, University of the West Indies.
7. China will teach the members of the PNP administration the Drunken Master Kung Fu style and Roger "Po" Clark will be the Dragon Warrior.

Where we should come together in the national interest we are fighting among ourselves. I firmly believe the opposition should have been with the Government in China negotiating in the national interest from a Jamaica first approach but we are not wired that way.

Not Even the Great United States is Immune to China
"In much of America, Chinese investment is quietly booming, with over $10.5 billion of deals by Chinese companies in the United States so far this year, 2013 is on pace to be the largest year ever for mergers and acquisitions of U.S. firms by Chinese companies, according to Thomson Reuters data."

Human Development vs. the Environment

China have identified two location for the construction of the Logistic Hub and Minister Robert Pickersgill announced that consideration is now being given for the use of Goat Island One and Two as the site of the hub. They were first offered Fort Augusta but rejected it declaring that the area was too small, they wanted 3,000 acres of land to build the port and mega centre.

The problem is, these are environmentally protected areas and Environmental groups have announced that they will not give them up without a fight and are prepared to take the government to court. The Government declared these areas a protected site some years ago but now has come full circle on the matter. This project is huge and the environmental impact deep and destructive, flattening one island and using the 70 feet hill to dump up the wetlands between the two islands making one big mega island, where is sharknado when you need him.

The Lush Goat Island

I consider myself a soldier in the war to protect the environment and I normally give the Jamaica Environment Trust the benefit of the doubt, they have earned my trust, so if they say no way, hands off then I am inclined to side with them and fight to protect this area. We must find the right balance between the need for Human Development and preservation of the environment, I do understand that we must sacrifice some of our environment in the interest of human development, growth and employment but where do we draw that line?

Goat Island

This is not like the Aluminum red mud lake byproduct, which already exist, is toxic and serves no purpose… These are rich environmental locations full of life that needs to be protected. I do understand that people need work, poverty needs to be addressed but should we give up some of the environment to achieve this? A big part of me says no. I just wish the debate was free of politics, everyone trying to score political point and not acting in the best interest of Jamaica. As far as I am concern if you are political then you are by nature contradictory and hypocritical and being for or against an issue is based on Political Parties and not on principles, if you support an issue or is against an issue out of principle then politics is irrelevant. The pros and cons regarding this issue must be made available for all to see and to evaluate but in the mean time I am in Environmentalist mode.

China Idea of Development

Demystifying The Logistics Hub
Minister of industry, investment and commerce, Anthony Hylton has shrugged off sceptics of the much-touted logistics hub, saying there are investors willing to pump huge sums into the US$8 billion project.

 In China the fish floats to the top

 The average Chinese lungs has evolved to breath in everything else but pure fresh air

China is not a country that cares about the environment nor are they acting in Jamaica’s best interest, well none of these types of countries ever acted in Jamaica’s best interest, certainly not the United States of America or Great Britain. We are old enough, have been on this earth long enough to know that we are only a means to an end, their end. We have lived through Slavery, Colonization and the Cold War and have been used and abused by these blood sucking first world countries at one time or another. So every one of us knows that China is looking out for China’s best interest and this is a negotiation, the government must fight for Jamaica's interest, we know we must give up somethings but we must also get somethings from the deal and the cost cannot be too much, we must be prepared to walk away.

If we appear too needy and cheap then we will be used like a crack whore who has not gotten her last fix for some time and right now our Government is needy, hurting, emotional, sensitive and fearful, yes people our Government is a Crack Whore who have not hit that pipe for some time now and will do just about anything for a quick fix.

Selling Our Birthright: Peter Espeut
The Chinese have declared the Goat Islands to be their preferred site to establish a huge port and logistics hub. The discussions have taken place in secret, but the scuttlebutt is that Great Goat Island is to be levelled, and the 100m-high hill pushed into the sea to cover the wetlands between them, and to create a huge island on which the logistics hub will be built.

 The Chinese version of Hellshire Beach

When it comes to the environment the average Chinese would live on Saturn’s moon Titan and suck Methane for money so I would never listen to the Chinese when it comes to the Environment.

More about → Jamaica, IMF, China and the Environment

Puppets and Puppet Masters, IMF in Control

In January of 2010 the IMF announced that its was in agreement with the Government of Jamaica for a bailout loan of US$1.2 Billion under a 27-month Stand-By Arrangement. By 2011 Jamaica’s IMF agreement derailed as Jamaica did not sit the review test for quarters ending December, June and September and the IMF has said it would not go to its board until Jamaica is able to get the programme back on track, as such Jamaica was unable to drawn down any more money from the fund.

Under the 27-month agreement with the IMF, Jamaica had agreed to reduce the public-sector wage bill from 11.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) to 9.5 per cent of GDP. Prime Minister Bruce Golding told Parliament that the requirement could lead to approximately 10,000 job cuts, which I think was a conservative estimate as some experts predicted close to 30,000. The IMF declared that Jamaica has not been moving fast enough to affect necessary reforms under the 27-month standby arrangement and so they will let off no more funds.

The big question then is, why did the Bruce Golding led Government stopped the IMF reforms dead in its tracks? What did the IMF want them to implement, was it so harsh, so terrible that they did not have the stomach or the backbone to continue with the IMF requirements? Whatever it was it was too much of a bitter medicine for them to deliver... so exit Bruce Golding and enter Andrew Holness.

In Oct 24, 2011 Andrew Holness was sworn in as the New Prime Minister, not long after he declared that the country will hold General elections on December 29th, just few months after taking office. Constitutionally the Hon. Holness did not have to call election and I thought it was a very bad idea at the time, Andrew needed time to make his mark but he was in a peculiar position with the IMF on one side and the Jamaican people on the other. Instead of taking the bull by the horn and do what had to be done he called an election thinking he would either first secure a mandate from the people or maybe he just did not want the job as head Bitter Medicine deliverer hoping that job would go to the PNP. Mr. Holness election campaign was based partly on the Bitter Medicine that was to come and the PNP campaign was based on the Good times that were to come.

Now the PNP have the job of delivering the toxic medicine even though they promised Good Times but only a fool would believe that good times was in our immediate future, knowing the state of our economy and society. Deep down in our hearts we knew for many decades we were heading in the wrong direction, spiraling out of control but throwing caution to the wind and living the high life felt way to good and addictive. However I do believe the Jamaican people have been crying out for structure and leadership for a long time, they wanted someone to stop their destructive behavior and lead the way, they wanted an intervention but our Political class is way too selfish for that, so they feed into the destructive behavior as a way to secure votes like a drug dealer to a crack addicted whore.

Honesty and Reliability are important factors in life, it is a requirement needed for the proper development of any society but members of our political class are neither Honest or reliable, they are just lying, blood sucking opportunist.

I agree with the Private Sector and the Opposition with regards to the Stealth Planned Tax Package. We understand that The IMF will have certain demands from Jamaica before any funds are released, they always do, so when the government announced a big broadcast, everyone tuned in to watched, waited to hear what was in store for us. Knowing the IMF and the state of the Jamaican economy "With a debt-to-GDP ratio of above 140 per cent, a persistent and perennial low-growth or no-growth economy, a crushing debt stock of J$1.7 trillion, and consistent under-performance on revenue collection" …we knew it would be both a Bitter and Toxic medicine and as such we braced ourselves, drink a beer and expected the absolute worst. One thing I know about Jamaican people, they do not do Austerity. They don’t mind getting a loan, always up for a big money let off but do not believe they should jump through hoops or swallow bitter medicine, ...it goes against the very principle of the Let off Culture.

So After the broadcast I said to myself, is that it? A friend of mine said when is the other shoe going to drop because that cannot be it? The Government introduced a new JDX (Jamaica Debt Exchange) programme requested by the IMF (called it: NDX (National Debt Exchange)). The Finance Minister touched on some potential projects to help boost growth and declared that they were hoping to have a public sector wage freeze agreement. After which the Private Sector declared that they were all on board willing and ready to do their part, shoulders to the grind stone. The opposition is never on board it is the very nature of a Jamaican Opposition regardless of which party is in opposition. Our opposition is only concern with opportunities to oppose and expose, stick it to the government… they live for the “Got You Moments”, so there will never be any holding of hands and tackling national issues out of patriotic and national pride. The Jamaican political class and diehard supporters practice the Scorched Earth Policy, if my party is not in power, tear down the country, mash it up, leave no stone unturned until I regain power.

It was a very Underwhelming speech by the PM and the Finance Minister which is why the Private Sector was chuffed, the private sector prefer their bad news light not heavy and disruptive, however the broadcast did not deliver much by way of substance. The TVJ Panel of experts was more informative, although I did not understand the need for them to call Jason Abrahams in Florida, sound like they woke him up, he had nothing to contribute but nothing Jamaicans love more than a person with an impressive last name and Job title working for a big company in North American to babble on and on about absolutely nothing …seconds into his chatter I was thinking… “Man come off a di phone and go back a yu bed”.

The next morning the Government went into Parliament and announced a $16.4-billion Tax Package, plus an additional $11.4 billion from the NHT (National Housing Trust) over the next 4 years.

The Government met with:

• The Opposition before the broadcast and no mention was made of the Planned Tax Package.
• The Private Sector before the broadcast and no mention was made of the Planned Tax Package.
• The Trade Unions and no mention was made of the Planned Tax Package.
• The Jamaican people on a nationwide broadcast and still no mention was made of the Planned Tax Package.

Clearly the time to announce/introduce this Planned Tax Package was during the nationwide broadcast after introducing it to the stake holders in the pre-meeting. Then go into Parliament and discuss the details with the Opposition and the country.

I am sorry but The Government was disingenuous and I cannot understand why, to what aim, what were they trying to achieve, what outcome did they expect from this deception? I don’t even know if we can call it deception because it looked like pure stupidity to me. What is the difference between being upset the night before or in the morning, plus the night before we were expecting to go to bed upset after hearing the bitter medicine details?

Those of us old enough understand that the IMF have us firmly by the short and curly because once you invite the IMF into to your house then they are now in charge of your house, so just be Honest and Open, let the chips fall where they may, we the Jamaican people caused this mess and we the Jamaican people must sacrifice to clean up our mess. Trying to Stealth in a Massive Planned Tax Package was the wrong thing to do and this Government looked foolish in my eyes. I am not even sure I can call it stealth anymore because it was announced in parliament and to the opposition, so I will just stick with Pure Stupidity.

The Real
World Boss

Having lived through IMF I told you youngsters not to go back to the Fund, I was told how cheap the loan was, but these youngsters are only looking for cheap, easy, let off money, they expected to get something for nothing which is what fishing is all about. This my dear friends is what the IMF does, its terms are Harsh, Hard and Fast, they can tell you to lay off 40,000 workers without batting an eye or implement massive Tax Packages at moments noticed, It is the IMF way or the highway and knowing the state of Jamaica it will only get worse, their terms are always Austerity and I have yet to hear or see any growth programme from this Government. The IMF is now in charge, they are the ones dictating our financial policies, the elected Government is just the conduit through which their power flows.

The Political Class

It amazes me also that this Government was anti-tax and anti-JDX when the previous Government was pro-tax and pro-JDX and it equally amazes me that the Opposition is anti-tax and anti-JDX when they were pro-tax and pro-JDX when they were in power. I never know if the opposition is making a statement base on Solid Economics Facts, with unselfish logics and commonsense or just opposing for opposing sake. I would like to think they are making a solid economic factual statement but knowing our political parties they say one thing in opposition and say something else when in Government. Audley Shaw on CVM sounded like he was campaigning. However I am happy to finally hear from the opposition, having heard way too much from those muppets in the G2K. The moral of the story is, be careful of Political Posturing while in opposition because you never know what will happen when you become the Government. Be mindful of what you say and do because it might come back to bite you in the butt.

I watched “Simon Says” on CVM the other night as he read statements from members of both political parties while they occupy different positions of our Government structure over time and it got me thinking... They can curse something one minute and defend the same thing the next. It just confirms to me what I knew all along but hoping that someday it would change, that politicians have no Principles, because principle is not wishy washy or opportunistic, it is a firm, stand your ground thing and the measure of a person. I think we are in bigger trouble than any of us care to think about, not because the economy is rubbish, not because the exchange rate is rubbish, not because of high crime rate but because those members of the political class are Spineless, Lying, deceitful, little invertebrates totally void of any principles and no good will come of it. For the first time in decades I genuinely fear for the future of my beloved country, each time I look and listen to members of the Government and Opposition.

Unless the Opposition can come up with something radically different, promoting personal responsibility and moving us in a different direction then I do not see any other option. It was the Opposition that brought the IMF back to our beds and then failed to implement their requirements. The IMF is not trying to create a growth program, it just knows how to chip away at what it sees as the problem, Public sector wage bill too high? Fire the lot!, Government need more Revenue? Increase taxes! Take the public sector for example, ever since I my eye deh a mi kneel, I have been hearing that we need to reduce the size of the public sector, every jack man knows it is bloated and costing us too much, people are just employed for employment sake and there is no efficiency in the sector. Back in the 90’s Douglas Orane was commissioned to investigate the sector and identify waste and mismanagement. The Government paid lip service to it and when the report was finally delivered the Government shelved it, none of the recommendation was ever implemented to my knowledge. We did not need the IMF to tell us to lay off 30,000 people, we could have laid off 1000 public sector workers , per year with an hire freeze for the past 30 years or 2000 over 15 years. A lot of our problems have been around for decades and we have done nothing to deal with it over time. The Political class does political tip toeing around the problems and the people.... well they just love and enjoy their merriment ...from Dancehall to Jazz and Reggae Concerts, to hot Observer Page 2 moments at various events. Jamaica is the Matrix, that movie must have been written with us in mind, reality means nothing, perception is everything, every body lives in their own creation of Lah, Lah Land where they bask in their own self-importance... look at me, look at me, I am big and large.

I have heard diehard supporters of the opposition declaring that it is now time for us to do one of our world renowned demonstration, that it is time to go on a slash and burn, looting and shooting rampage and I wonder to demand what, how will that fix anything, a rampage on that level will only make matters worst. It is about time we separate some of our problems from the political arena to the national arena and deal with the problems as one people, united before the world.

Meanwhile over the many years, No Mass Rally or Protest have ever been organized against:

• Government Corruption, Lies and Empty Promises
• Increasing Murder/Crime Rate
• Economic Mismanagement and Hardship
• Crumbling and/or missing infrastructure
• Child abuse/murder on rise in Jamaica

Which tells me mass riot and demonstration is only done when the opposition wants to become the Government not because they care about the lives of the people.

We have done nothing to address the problems in our society and as a matter of fact every Government have tried not to take any bold step fearing they may upset the electorate who provides them with power and glory but we cannot continue like this, we must change. The name Jamaica was meant for bigger and better things, a shining example to all but we have lost our way and derailed our journey to greatness. It is now time to correct the error of our ways.

The Austerity, Inflationary, No Growth, Bitter Medicine, Debt Reducing IMF Budget 

More about → Puppets and Puppet Masters, IMF in Control